Defending the virtues of liberty, free markets, and civilization... plus some commentary on the passing scene.
Monday, October 17, 2005
Another Step Closer
As we like to say in the blogoshpere, democracy is a process, not an event. Saturday, Iraq took another step in that process and the insurgency another step towards defeat as civilization continues its rebirth in Mesopotamia. Strategy Page reports:
October 16, 2005: The government is getting better at running national elections under the threat of terrorist attacks. The legislative elections last January had fewer than ten million people voting, and over 40 people killed by terrorists opposed to the elections. This vote, on the new constitution, brought out over ten million (69 percent of those registered), and left fewer than ten dead. There are several reasons for this progress. First, the government is getting better. There are more police, and more of them are trained and reliable. The government has used its experience well, and the country was basically shut down for yesterday's election, making it difficult for terrorists to move around. And apparently the terrorists did not move much, and attacked even less. But another reason for that was the effort by many Sunni Arab anti-government groups to get Sunni Arabs to vote against the new constitution. If the three mainly Sunni Arab provinces could get two thirds of the voters to go against the new constitution, the constitution would have to go back for more revisions and a new vote. Many Sunni Arabs decided that they could live with the new constitution, and turned out to vote that way. As a result, it appears that the Sunni Arabs did not stop the constitution.
All of this is another major defeat for the al Qaeda and anti-government forces. These two groups have not been able to stop any elections, and their efforts are weaker with each round of voting. Al Qaeda's efforts to goad the Shia Arabs into a civil war with Sunni Arabs has not worked either, although it has caused a lot of ill-will and violence in areas where Shia and Sunni live close together.
The anti-government forces have little to sustain them. The October 15 election was just another of many major defeats. And every day, there are numerous lesser defeats. But some of the Sunni Arab terrorists will keep at it, and it will be years before this threat is completely gone from Iraq. That's been the pattern in other Arab countries over the past few decades.
Murdoc reminds us of some of the conventional wisdom over the last couple years.
Recall that it would take many months and many thousands of American lives simply to conquer Iraq.
Recall that, even if we managed to get control, the Iraqi people would never regain their sovereignty.
Recall that, even if we did give Iraq back to the Iraqis, it would simply be a puppet government that ruled.
Recall that, even if the government ever allowed elections, the Iraqi people wouldn't be interested in participating.
Recall that, even if the Iraqis did want to vote, the violence in Iraq would prevent them from doing so.
Recall that, even if elections were held, they would be so corrupt as to be worthless.
Recall that, even if a freely-elected government was formed, they would never be able to keep control.
Recall that, even if a new Iraqi government did manage to run things, they would never agree on a permanent charter.
Recall that, even a charter acceptable to all government leaders was written, the Iraqi voters would never approve it.
Recall that, even if voters did approve a new constitution, it would be without much participation of the Sunnis and would therefore be meaningless.
And surely now that the Sunnis have participated but generally voted 'no' this will be spun as a loss, a failure to win the 'hearts and minds'. But that is nonsense. Participation is what counts, there will always be a side that loses politically.
The brothers of Iraq the Model voted, and they have lots of coverage including video, just keep scrolling.
Wow, the phrases "high voter turnout in Falluja" and "The World Series is coming to Chicago" accurately portray reality. Who would have thought...... Oh and because of that World Series thing (not to mention work) things may be a bit quiet around here for the next couple of weeks.